Will Search Drive Mobile Ad Revenues?

Last month, BIA/Kelsey released its annual mobile forecast. It projects mobile ad revenues in the U.S. to grow from $490 million in 2009 to $2.9 billion in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 43 percent.But more interesting than the total revenue pie is the breakdown of formats that drive this growth. SMS and display ads currently lead in revenue but are projected to be eclipsed by the faster moving mobile search ad category over the next five years. 

 

By the Numbers

So why is that? There are intricate formulas to devise these projections, unique to the way that each of these formats are bought and sold. Inputs include search volume, ad coverage, page views, CPCs, CPMs, etc.

Aggregate revenue for top mobile ad networks are also used to confirm figures. Along these lines, Google's announced $2 billion global mobile run rate was affirming, given its estimated 60 percent share of the U.S. mobile ad market (including AdMob).

But looking back over why search ad revenue will accelerate so rapidly, a few interesting theories arise. First, it's projected that the mobile web is expected to grow at a faster pace than the native apps that have erstwhile ruled the smartphone environment.

Because search is the front door to browser-based experiences, this bodes well for search volume and thus revenues. Add in the fact that the immediacy and commercial intent of mobile users drives search ad "CTRs and CPCs higher than desktop equivalents.

Back to the premise that the mobile web will grow faster than apps, this is a bone of contention as the industry-wide "apps vs. mobile web" debate rages on. This is also one of the increasing points of friction between Apple and Google.

Google's core search business compels it to push for a world where the browser is the front door. Comparatively, Apple's app-centric universe spreads content and features into little self-defined buckets where search isn't quite as necessary.

This is much behind Google's outspoken support for the mobile web and its own practice to "develop first" for the mobile web for products like Gmail, Latitude, YouTube, and others. 

World Wild Web

But more so than Google's sway and the rest of the factors above, it could really just end up being a combination of economics and improving mobile browsers that push users and developers toward the mobile web.

Things like HTML5 allow developers to build mobile websites, (a.k.a. web apps), with features previously reserved for native apps. And it's much cheaper to build a web app and reach many more users across platforms.

As these factors take hold, the point is that we'll see more and better content fill the mobile web. By comparison, it now resembles the Wild West environment we saw on the desktop 15 years ago, where content is lacking, hard to find, and under-optimized.

Mobile ad network Chitika reports that only 4 percent of top online domains have optimized mobile sites. It's no wonder why most mainstream mobile users flock to app stores instead.

But this could all change as many of the factors above coalesce and as more content comes online. In parallel, we'll also see mobile users get better and more comfortable at searching the mobile web -- just like they did on the desktop over the past decade.

And don't forget parallel technologies that will make searching easier such as voice and visual search. This includes bar code scanners, voice search, and other inputs that are more intuitive than tapping a tiny keyboard.

Google, again in support of boosting mobile search volume, has made lots of investment in these areas, such as Goggles and voice actions for Android. It even announced that a surprisingly high 25 percent for its mobile searches executed with voice.

To tie all of this to a monetization engine, Google is increasingly adding options to AdWords to build mobile search campaigns. In 2010 it launched mobile pay-per-call ads and hyperlocal ad targeting. 

Repeating History

Through all of this, we'll start to see the mobile web become a much more functional, substantive, and friendly place to search. Monetization will follow. 

Don't forget, desktop computing over the past five years shifted from being a client-centric environment to one that's more browser-based, where content and software reside in the cloud. We'll see a similar shift in mobile.

Not to be so down on apps -- they aren't going away any time soon. If anything, Apple's move to bring them to tablets and now the desktop will ensure a solid future. But the mobile web will see faster growth.

That of course means more search volume. Combined with higher CTRs and CPCs than desktop search, it becomes a matter of arithmetic to plot a fairly healthy roadmap for mobile search ad revenue.

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How Will SEO Change in 2011?

How Will SEO Change in 2011?

It's that time of year again. SEO bloggers are either looking back at their predictions for 2010 and seeing how right (or wrong) they were, or making entirely new predictions for 2011 -- possibly because they were so wrong last year that it wasn't worth looking back?
I want to focus on just one prediction for 2011 and then go ahead and try to make it happen on behalf of my clients. This seems like a more simple task than coming up with five or 10 predictions, knowing that some of them were made up simply so that I could fill a blog post.
The big news in SEO recently was the revelation that social media signals affect natural search rankings, from interviews with people at both Google and Bing -- although no indication was given to how much they affect rankings.

To be fair, if you were a search engine and wanted to know what brands, websites, and general content people wanted to interact with online, where would you go first? It has an added benefit for those who think that the SERPs are a bit spammy (I'm not one of them, for the record).
One way of reducing the number of arguably lower quality websites would be to look at who the popular brands are in the social media space and try to reward them with more authority.
How can SEOs take advantage of what seems to be a clear shift toward sentiment as an extra factor in achieving better rankings?

A growing number of SEO techniques can be undertaken with SEO, and specifically link building, in mind -- from PR and advertorials to advertising on relevant industry websites.
In 2011, I expect this to become more closely tied with clients' overall marketing campaigns. The best way to explain this is with an example:
Client A is a retailer, looking to boost sales of a specific range of camping equipment products. Special offers, promotions, and TV advertising is all planned and will revolve around a creative execution involving a character who will appear in their ads.
The opportunities for SEO here are endless, and need to be part of the initial planning, not an afterthought. For example:

• TV ads to be backed up with a strong PR campaign, aimed at increasing the number of brand and URL links to the client's site.


• The specialist nature of the goods is such that a blogger outreach campaign can be undertaken, looking for product reviews, advertising opportunities, contextual links, or at least deep links from these relevant sites.

• The ad campaign's character will have a Facebook and Twitter presence. If it is an engaging campaign, they will get a lot of followers and their profile will have strong social signals, which can then add value when linking back to the site.

• Key influencers for this market on Twitter and Facebook can be contacted and encouraged to review products, follow the main character and will retweet, "Like," and re-post special offers or product insights.

• A campaign to win a free camping stove can be run as an "online game" (like the "throw the penguin" game, for example) and embedded on blogger sites to increase usage. It can also contain backlinks.
This gives us a "natural" balance between followed and no-followed links, contextual versus brand and URL links, from a variety of highly relevant sources, and also leverages the social media "buzz" metrics as further opportunities.

The point is that SEO, rather than being purely an ongoing process of optimization, will be more influential as part of a campaign-led marketing strategy. In 2011, we'll need to work with our clients to ensure this happens.
Joyous Christmas and a Happy New Year! 



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SEO Preparation for 2011.....

SEO Preparation for 2011

The holiday period is upon us and soon it will be the New Year. As we wrap up an extremely eventful year, it's time to review of some of the major events of 2010, and then look forward on the best way to prepare (SEO-wise) for 2011.

Let's begin with some of the major highlights of the year.

Page Speed Becomes a Ranking Factor

Earlier in the year Google announced that page speed had become a ranking factor. For slow ponderous sites this sounded a warning bell that the 7+ second load time they had on their pages was going to be a problem.

This is just one of the many changes regarding speed that Google has focused on over the past few years. However, there's no need to panic just yet. Only the really slow sites are likely to be negatively impacted.

Google's May Day Update

Google constantly makes changes and tweaks to its algorithms. They make hundreds of changes a year. However, once in a while they make a change that is more obvious to the public.

One example of that was their May Day update, which took place around May 1. Many sites reported significant losses in long tail traffic -- up to 10 percent or more.

The impacted sites seemed to be those with a lack of, or low number of, deep links. Matt Cutts discussed the May Day update in this YouTube video. Key points by Cutts were:

·         The update wasn't related to Caffeine.

·         It was an algorithm change.

·         Long tail traffic was impacted.

·         "High quality" sites were the winners.

One of the key questions then is how do you define "high quality?" Indicators of a quality site would be measured by links and other metrics, such as bounce rate and time on site.

Google Caffeine

This came closely on the heels of May Day, which is why so many people confuse the two. However, it was a completely separate change and had no direct impact on rankings.

As explained here, this was an infrastructure change, the purpose of which was to speed up the indexing system at Google. The prior indexing process required Google to update the index in batches, as opposed to relatively instantly once new or changed content is discovered. With Caffeine, Google can now make updates on the fly as these changes are discovered.

Google Instant

In September Google rolled out Google Instant. This UI change displayed search results as the user types into the search box. The search results reflect the top line in the Google Suggest box.

The theory behind this is if the user sees what they want they won't need to finish typing their query. Try typing "w" for example, and you will likely see the results for weather in your area:

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This is one of the more curious changes by Google during the year, as there were many who didn't like the change. However, chances are that it is here to stay.

Google Instant Previews

Not far behind Instant (in November), Google released Google Instant Previews. This is a magnifying glass that sits to the right of the title of the individual search results:

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Chances that a relatively small number of people (perhaps 5 percent) will use a feature like that.

If that is the case, why did Google do it? Knowing Google, it's about data collection. Also, Google can use it as a ranking signal.

If someone clicks the magnifying glass for a particular search result, and they then choose to not go to that page, it could be a negative signal, and vice versa. Then Google can consider the relative behavior of users who preview one site's listing versus the behavior of users who preview other listings. This allows Google to introduce a user's visceral impression of a web page as a ranking factor.

Bing-Yahoo integration

So far my review has been heavily Google-centric, but one of the biggest events of the year was the integration of Bing results into Yahoo, and retirement of Yahoo's independent search index here in the U.S. The big impact of this was a leap in Bing's market share.

Looking at recent Hitwise data, this caused a lift in Bing market share from just under 10 percent to just over 25 percent. The same data shows Google as being over 70 percent.

So Google still dominates perhaps, but Bing is now a competitor worthy of attention. From a paid search perspective, there is a large additional marketplace available here. Even from an SEO perspective, it makes sense to more closely monitor how your site is faring in the Bing search results.

Looking Forward to 2011

To state the obvious, expect lots more change. Here are some of the big things you can expect:

   1. The drive for new search ranking signals will continue. For example, more and more social signals will be used by the search engines.
   2. When changes are made in the UI, or new tools are offered, consider the possibility of ranking signals as being the purpose behind those changes.
   3. Google's obsession with performance will continue without pause. Look for more in this area as well.
   4. Expect Google, Bing, or both, to make some major shift in some area of search this year. This could be something like high quality voice enabled search, a significantly higher level of personalization, some way of distributing search away from the portal methodology, contextual discovery, or something else. Bing is striving to increase its market share, and Google wants to at least retain theirs. This will lead both companies to seek out seismic shifts in search value.

Be distinct, or be Dead

So what does this mean for publishers? It puts more and more pressure on publishers to add as much unique value as possible. The search engines will measure this by watching the way the web reacts to what you do. Signals include:

· Links (still a big factor!)

· Social media

· User behavior and interaction with your site

· How it compares to other sites covering the same topic matter

You need to think a lot like a traditional marketer now. Engage with your community, and if you don't have one, go build one. Offer items of value, produce good content ... the same thing that many of us have been saying for many years.

Gaming the system may still work somewhat. I know many who say that buying links still works, for example.

But the strategic goals of the search engines are working against you and they have obscene piles of money to invest and a lot more of it at stake. While this statement has been true for years, they are now making substantial progress toward their goals.

The beauty of a more traditional marketing approach is that it will be kind to you as the years pass. As search engines improve algorithms they will do a better recognizing sites that are seen as valuable by users.

Use a holistic approach to your online marketing efforts. Then, the changes at the search engines make are likely to favor you at the expense of your competitors who take a more short-term tactical approach.

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Google & Bing Are Looking at Links on Twitter & Facebook for Organic Ranking..

Google And Bing Are Looking at Links on Twitter & Facebook for Organic Ranking

Search and social go well together, and the search engines are finding more and more ways to use them together. In fact, the right combinations of these two elements could eventually dictate who has the most useful tools for users.    It's become more and more clear over time that having a strong social presence is helpful in building a strong search presence for a variety of reasons, but it's not been so clear, just how the search engines have looked at things like Twitter and Facebook profiles when it comes to organic search ranking. 

Be supposed to social media be careful in search ranking? Tell us what you imagine

Search Engine Land Chief Danny Sullivan posted an important article about this very topic, with some rare and surprisingly direct answers from both Google and Bing. While, neither exactly gave away their respective secret sauces, it would appear that they have set some things straight. 

Google

Google reportedly uses when an article is retweeted or referenced in Twitter as a signal in organic and news rankings (even though links on Twitter are nofollowed). They also use it to enhance the news universal results (based on how many people share an article). 

Google "computes and uses author quality" for when someone tweets. When Sullivan asked if they calculate whether a link should carry more weight depending on who tweets it, Google Responded, "Yes we do use this as a signal, especially in the 'Top links' section [of Google Realtime Search]. Author authority is independent of PageRank, but it is currently only used in limited situations in ordinary web search."

Google says it treats links shared on Facebook Fan pages the same way as tweeted links, but they have no personal Facebook wall data. Authority for Facebook Pages is also treated like Twitter. 

So, the more authoritative the crowd sharing links to your content, the better. Not that different than PageRank. 

Bing

When it comes to Twitter, Bing tells Sullivan it also looks at social authority of users and more specifically, looks at how many people they follow and how many follow them, adding that this can add "a little weight" to a listing in regular search results (though it carries more in Bing's separate Social Search). Bing decides when links should carry more weight based on the person who tweets it. 

As far as Facebook, Bing currently looks at links shared on Facebook that are marked as being shared to "everyone" and those from Fan Pages. "We can tell if something is of quality on Facbook by leveraging Twitter," as Sullivan paraphrases Bing's response. "If the same link is shared in both places, it’s more likely to be legitimate."

Bing does not use its new Facebook data in ordinary web search...yet.

On a related note, Bing is finding other interesting ways to utilize Facebook with search.

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So, clearly it pays to tweet and build a credible Twitter presence. This means gaining a significant following in number, but also getting authoritative users to follow you (and hopefully retweet your links). This would appear to be good for plain old fashioned organic rankings as well as other supplemental search results. More importantly, it pays to create good content that will attract authoritative Twitterers to share it with others. 

These things of course pay anyway, but it's nice to know that they actually do have an effect on search rankings as well. 

It's not surprising that Twitter is currently playing a more important role in to search engine ranking than Facebook, simply because Twitter is public by default. Facebook is much more walled, meaning that most of the good Facebook data is private. Though it will be interesting to see what happens when Bing does integrate its newly acquired Facebook into its regular search offerings. 

This wall of Facebook's is also a factor into why Facebook could potentially unleash its own legitimate search engine. It's got a search feature now of course, but there is a great deal of potential for them to do a whole lot more and really get under Google's skin. More on that here. 

Sullivan provides more background and context around the search engines' social signals, as well as the full with both marketingseo, and details about the Twitter Firehose's lack of nofollow.

With the information Sullivan has gotten out of Google and Bing, will you focus more on social media? Observation here

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Google Finance Now Lets You Sign In With Multiple Accounts....

Google Finance Now Lets You Sign In With Multiple Accounts

Google has added multiple sign-in to Google Finance. This means users can now use more than one Google account in the same browser session to access Google Finance. 

"Gone are the days of switching between browsers to see your personal vs. professional financial portfolios, news, and charts," says product manager Brian Shih. "With multiple sign-in, you simply switch between accounts using the upper right hand navigation tool. The site will smoothly transition to your other account, allowing you to view other account portfolios in the click of a mouse."

To utilize multiple sign-in with Google Finance, click your username in the upper right-hand corner, then click "Google Account Settings" to get to you profile page. From there, click "edit" next to the multiple sign-in setting. 

Google has been allowing multiple sign-ins for some products since at least early August. Just remember the warning Google provided back then: 

Enabling multiple sign-in will disable Offline products like Offline Gmail and Offline Calendar, as well as any browser bookmarks you've set to link to your accounts. If you use Offline Gmail, make sure to sync your offline mail before enabling multiple sign-in so you don't lose any messages in your outbox. If you would like to continue using Offline Gmail, Offline Calendar, and browser bookmarks linked to your accounts, do not enable the multiple sign-in option. If you have already enabled multiple sign-in, you may disable it.

Google also offers multiple sign-in for the desktop versions of Google Code, Google Calendar, Gmail, Google Reader, Google Sites, and Google Voice, with Google Docs support coming soon.
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